The annual football contest between Delaware and Villanova, recently named “The Battle of the Blue,” has involved legitimate national champion contenders in recent years.  Delaware ended its 2007 and 2010 seasons with losses in the FCS title game, while Villanova won the national title in 2009 and was a semi-finalist last year.

While the squads that face off this weekend may not be up to those standards, the game still has meaning for both programs.  Villanova (2-8, 1-6), coming off a bye week following its first conference win two weeks ago, hopes to build momentum going into next season.  Meanwhile Delaware (6-4, 4-3) still has an outside shot at a playoff spot with a win.

In what has been an up and down season for the Blue Hens, Coach K.C. Keeler and the Delaware team hope to keep their slim FCS playoff hopes alive against rival Villanova.

Although the matchup has held its current moniker only since 2006, the first game between the teams happened more than 100 years ago, in 1895.  Villanova leads the matchup with an all-time record of 23-20-1, including wins in the last four.

To football fans not yet indoctrinated, the intensity of the rivalry between the programs and their fans may be surprising.  The universities are separated by roughly 45 miles across states, leading to disdain by proximity.  The recent success of the programs adds another dimension.  Verbal shots have been fired from all sides since the 1970′s.

It is against this backdrop that Saturday’s game will be played.  Blue Hen fans hope the Wildcats’ frustrating season continues; Villanova fans want their team to deliver the final knockout punch to Delaware’s playoff homes.

The three areas that will decide the outcome of the game are Delaware’s running attack, Villanova’s turnover margin and red zone scoring.

Delaware’s Running Attack

Led by star back Andrew Pierce, Delaware is fourth in the conference with 164 rushing yards per game.  The native of Bridgeton, NJ, has followed a sensational freshman campaign with 117 yards per game and 15 touchdowns as a sophomore.  Opening holes for Pierce are senior linemen Gino Gradkowski and Shea Allard, who will both participate in the FCS Senior Scout Bowl following the season.  Their superior running game has allowed Delaware the CAA’s best time of possesion at almost 32 minutes per game.

Delaware will need to take advantage of Villanova’s struggles against the run; the Wildcats are tenth in the CAA in allowing 172 rushing yards per game.  The struggles on defense are a part of growing pains, as several starters from last year’s unit were lost to graduation.  Villanova needs a strong performance from standout freshman linebacker Dillon Lucas, who leads the Wildcats with 85 total tackles.

Recently named CAA Defensive Player of the Week, Wildcats DB James Pitts and the young Villanova defense are finally working as a cohesive unit.

Villanova’s Turnover Margin

Although Villanova has a minus-six turnover margin for the season, they were plus-seven combined in their two wins.  In their 30-21 victory over Penn, turnovers directly led to the win as the Wildcats’ defense returned two interceptions for touchdowns.  Against Massachusetts, senior James Pitts (Montclair, NJ) set the tone with three interceptions as Villanova forced six total turnovers in its 35-17 win.  Pitts’ performance earned him CAA defensive player of the week honors.

Delaware itself is plus-five in the turnover margin this season, fourth-best in the CAA, and surrenders an average of 1.1 turnovers per game.  Starting quarterback Tim Donnelly has played well in ten games (with eight starts), throwing eleven touchdowns against ten interceptions.  The Blue Hens will need a turnover-free performance from Donnelly to limit easy scoring opportunities for the Wildcats.

Red Zone Scoring

Delaware and Villanova are statistically the two worst teams in the CAA in red zone defense.  The Wildcats allow opponents to score on 89.7% of their red zone possessions, while the Blue Hens allow scores on 88.5% inside their 20.  Further analysis shows that Delaware has allowed a league-low 26 red zone possessions, while Villanova has allowed 39.

Delaware has statistically outperformed Villanova in red zone offense in a manner more pronounced than the defensive comparison.  The Blue Hens have scored on 26 of 32 (81.2%) red zone possessions with 20 touchdowns.  Villanova is last in the conference with its 66.7% conversion rate on 33 red zone possessions, and only 14 of its 22 red zone scores were touchdowns.  In their wins, Villanova scored on both of its red zone possessions against Penn and was four-for-five opportunities against UMass.

While bearing in mind the analysis above, the rivalry aspect of the game brings a qualitative measure that can negate statistical measures.  Fans can expect a hard-hitting game between one team fighting for the playoffs and another that has shown progress in recent weeks.  In addition to ending the other team’s current season on a low-note, the winner will have bragging rights over the loser for another twelve months.

Joe will be providing updates from the game via Twitter at VaBeachRep.